Game Changers
What drives change
Wooden Ships
The largest wooden Clipper ship ever built was called the Great Republic. Its maiden voyage from Boston to Liverpool happened in 1853. The Great Republic was a 4500-ton marvel of wood, steel nails and magnificent sails. With a top speed of around 17 knots, it set records, including being the first ship to sail 475 miles in a single day. Throughout the middle decades of the 19th century these incredible, elegant beasts of the sea fought battles, made and lost fortunes for people and nations, and ushered in the first great period of global commerce. Growing right along with these vessels were the first steam powered ships. However, the true beginning of the nautical game change occurred in 1844 with a steam ship called Archimedes (its screw patent was first registered in 1836) which employed a screw driven propeller propulsion system. Instead of turning a paddle wheel (which moves in and out of the water) the screw blades of the Archimedes stayed below the water, making propulsion more uniform. This innovation would ultimately end the era of large sailing ships. Towards the end of the 19th century the introduction of massive shipboard steam engines patterned after the Archimedes allowed for not only constant speeds exceeding 20 knots (which the clippers could not match, even with the wind filling all their massive sails) but also for electric light on board the ships. The world changed.
And note--it was not the use of the steam engine but rather the simple idea of keeping the propulsion system constantly in the water that was the game changer.
An AI Driven Game Change
Because of the insane demands that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will put on our electric power supplies another game change is afoot. And just like the great navies (seeking power and commerce) in the 19th century, the drivers of adaptation in how electric power is generated will be the Artificial Intelligence companies racing to see who can first develop cheap, reliable, non-carbon spewing electricity. Remember, the folks behind AI are all bad losers which is why they are reimagining how to drive their machines, just like the builders of Archimedes. As AI continues to grow exponentially, it will need more and more server farms, which will overburden an already overtaxed electric grid. AI is as addictive as your smartphone. Good luck quitting once you’re hooked.
No winners yet
The entrenched players in the world of renewable energy are Solar PV (turning sunlight into electricity) and wind turbines. Coming on very quickly are batteries. For decades the battery has seemed to be the Holy Grail we’ve all sought. Why? Because you can store and then use power generated by the Solar Cells or wind when the sun isn’t shining or the when the wind isn’t blowing. The intermittent nature of these electric generators has been a constant complaint with my favorite being, “they’ll never be part of baseload power.” Baseload power is the steady power being delivered to us right now by coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants.
The hazard of most industries is that they see themselves as the only game in town. Disruption of the game, so to speak, usually comes from an oblique angle. The real creative players have a way of sneaking up on you. In recent history the best example is telecommunications (phones). Except for the people actually at Google/Android and Apple, who imagined that these two companies would dominate how smart phones operate around the globe? Well, nobody. I think I have a Nokia flip phone in a drawer somewhere.
In the last two decades we’ve raced ahead with developing giant wind farms and even bigger (footprint wise) solar PV farms. The very real concerns about global warming and the truer need to bring electricity to the billions who have limited access to it have been key drivers. These renewable energy power plants are far less complicated to install, and they can be put in place quickly. When you look closer, they are just another electric grid resource and a generally reliable, low cost, nonpolluting energy source. Batteries are being used in very similar ways and proximity to robust grid interconnection locations has been essential for their deployment. The batteries are somewhat mobile in their design, but they still need to be plugged into a charging source. However, when you flip the battery on, day or night, it delivers power.
Power Where You Need It
The AI crowd has invested heavily in renewable energy. However, like the British Navy (Archimedes was one their ships) in the 1840’s, they have started plowing their research money into other things. I don’t like to go out on a limb too far most of the time. But I think they’ve found their screw drive. Here are the necessities involved with the further development of big server farms for AI: immense amounts of power that are constant and will come online on the schedule of the people building the server farm. When Sam Alton (founder of Chat GPT [love him or hate him, he’s part of world]) looks at the future he knows the grid (no matter what’s powering it) can’t keep up with our demand for AI.
What if the power source could sit right at the server? No need to run lines. No need to connect to the power grid. A simple (but nowhere near as elegant as wind turbines or PV cells) completely non-polluting power source parked (literally) right at the farm. Instead of using a PV cell to convert photons into electricity you simply use the Sun’s incredible thermal power to heat something up. This material is used to store the power as heat. The heated material can then (as needed, whenever it’s needed) convert heat into electricity. It is exactly like the steam ship that keeps its screw in the water. Not pretty. But more constant as a driver and very reliable. A company called. Exowatt is working right now to bring this idea to market in next 12 months.
Sam Altman Invests in Energy Startup Focused on AI Data Centers - WSJ
“You don’t have to go back to fossil fuels to solve the data-center energy problem… That’s counterproductive.” Hannan Parvizian, Exowatt’s chief executive said in an interview.”
Instead of solar panels arrayed across a field, Exowatt has developed modules roughly the size of shipping containers that contain solar lenses. The lenses convert energy from the sun into heat. That heat can then be used to heat up cheap basic materials much like electricity heats up a toaster, allowing the modules to store energy for up to 24 hours a day…
Amrith Ramkumar, 4-22-2024 The Wall Street Journal
The system converts the heat energy into electricity via an engine. The total portability of this type of electricity source is profound. Our modern way of life is built around electricity and this ability to store it as heat is simple and, in the long run, very cheap. While I’ve been writing this story I’ve been thinking about Thomas Edison. His inventiveness and ability to capitalize on it was a key usher of the modern world. The things that change the world aren’t often obvious. I think Edison would’ve been impressed with the simplicity behind the ideas of Exowatt.
"When we learn how to store electricity, we will cease being apes ourselves; until then we are tailless orangutans. You see, we should utilize natural forces and thus get all of our power. Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy. Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property." ~ Thomas A. Edison
I’ve experienced the sheer delight of zipping across the water on a racing yacht powered only by the wind. I marvel at the conversion of photons into electricity. Although both processes are marvelous and elegant, neither of them can provide the constant and consistent needs of several billion people to connect and learn and build a zero-carbon emissions future. The only constant, and hope, is change
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